Can Kilby Successfully Add Power to his Game?
Dax Kilby is one of the top ranked prospects not just in the Yankees system, but in all of baseball. His hit tool has impressed many around the league, as has his strong plate discipline, walking more than he has struck out in his brief professional career. Yet, one of the main questions by scouts has been if Kilby will be able to hit for quality game power. With no home runs in his first professional season, there was a clear plan by Kilby and the Yankees to work on this area of his game. The question is, did it work? I wanted to dive into Kilby’s 2026 season to discuss how he approached this change and what the level of concern for his game power should be.
Dax Kilby only played 18 games in 2025, but his professional debut immediately shot him into the top 100. His campaign was highlighted by a chase rate and whiff rate north of the 90th percentile for the level. While there certainly could be some complaints about passivity in the zone, his contact rates were so strong that he was able to stay in at-bats by fouling off tough pitches or putting the ball in play. What was most encouraging about his hit tool, besides his ability to make contact, was the quality of contact. Kilby may not be the strongest physically (though he certainly has room to grow), but he still put up excellent exit velocities for his size. His hard-hit rate of almost 50% allowed his balls in play to find grass in the outfield or holes in the infield. His chase rate, whiff rate, and quality of contact rates all support a guy who should be on base a lot, as seen by his .457 OBP.
The issue for Kilby was the slug, which was lower than his on base. As mentioned, Kilby’s ability to hit the ball hard isn’t the issue keeping him from hitting for more power. Rather, it was his bat path. In this 18-game sample, Kilby’s batted ball distribution was 54.4% ground ball, 28.1% line drive, and only 17.5% fly ball. It is very hard to get the ball over the fence with a ground ball rate that low. While his 8.8% pull air rate isn’t terrible, this combination would make it hard to see him hitting more than 10 home runs in a season. In order for Kilby to improve his fly ball rate and launch angles, it would likely include changing his bat path some, which could come at the risk of contact.
Fast forwarding to 2026, Kilby’s season was already dampened because of a spring training hamstring injury that lingered far longer than anyone anticipated, keeping him out of games till July. When we did get to see Kilby in Low-A again, it became clear Kilby was trying to address the power concerns from last year.
Kilby accomplished this, hitting 4 home runs in his 32 games at the level. His ISO jumped from .088 in 2025 to .174 in 2026. Kilby vastly changed his batted ball distribution, dropping his ground balls to 41.7% and line drives to 23.8% to support his improved 27.4% fly ball rate, a 9.9% year-over-year jump. Kilby’s pull air rate also saw a nice jump to 14.3%, above the Low-A average. With this change, Kilby also added 7.1% pop-ups, which gets us to our problem. While Kilby did get the ball in the air more, the quality in which he did it worsened.
Launch angle sweet spot measures balls in play between 8 and 32 degrees of launch angle. This range is used because most hard-hit line drives and home runs occur within this range. In 2025, Kilby had a LA sweet spot rate 31.6%, good for the 41st percentile in the league. This was below average due to his penchant for hitting the ball below the 8-degree angle and on the ground. In 2026, Kilby’s LA sweet spot rate shrank to 28.6%, the 15th percentile. Kilby went from hitting 10% of his balls above the 32 degree ceiling to 25%, an unhealthy gain.
Kilby also sacrificed a hefty amount of contact in this process. While in order to lift the ball more there was always going to be a little trade off with his contact, Kilby seemingly had wiggle room to absorb the hit. Still, the 10% dip in whiff rate and 5% dip to his zone contact was more than he should’ve needed to surrender. While adding more power to create a stable 10-20 home run bat would make Kilby a bigger offensive threat, Kilby’s strength as a strong swing decision and contact bat who can hit the ball to all fields is what will make him a good MLB player. Going from 95th percentile whiff to 66th is a big drop off in productivity that likely would become an issue as he attempted to climb the ladder if it persisted. With the combination of less contact and poor launch angles, it wasn't a season in which Kilby took a huge step forward.
Now, you may be thinking this is a negative take on a guy who still had a 143 wRC+ in 2026. While I certainly still believe in him highly as a prospect, I think noting where his changes may have failed him is critical in his development. And that takes us to the positive spin. Kilby has been playing in the Arizona Fall League in order to get him some more at-bats given the large amount of the season he missed. While the run environment favors hitters heavily, especially with the new rule experiment of outfielders not being able to shade over for hitters, Kilby still has performed extraordinarily well amongst the hitters there, ranking 7th in xwOBA. Even more impressive is he is doing this still at 19, whereas most of the pitchers are at least 2-3 years older than him that have pitched at higher levels of the minors than he has reached.
While it is a very small sample, it is encouraging to see his swing decisions have remained strong, if not even better (his z-swing is the highest it has ever been, indicating he is being more aggressive in the zone). Additionally, his contact has returned to the 2025 levels. While he is walking less than typical, this is because he is swinging more, therefore putting the ball in play more.
Most important to me is that his LA sweet spot rate has dramatically turned around. It is important to emphasize that this is a very small sample size, but Kilby’s LA sweet spot rate of 51.5% is 20% higher than his previous best in 2025. Of Kilby’s 11 hits so far in the AFL, 8 of them have been for extra bases. While this is almost certainly inflated because of the aforementioned experimental rule change, Kilby is showing that the process changes he attempted to make this summer may be starting to click. It can easily be seen in his swing at the plate. In the AFL, he has opened up his stance pre-pitch and is getting much more sink into his back leg. These changes are creating better loft in the bat path while not sacrificing his ability to adjust the barrel to the pitch.
Assuming a healthy off-season and spring training, Kilby should be a shoo-in to advance to High-A Hudson Valley to begin the year. The pitching he faces will take a step up, thus providing more challenge to the soon-to-be 20-year-old. We know Kilby has excellent swing decisions, top level contact, and the tools to add some legitimate game power. No one is asking of him to be a 30+ home run guy, but adding 15-20 home run power into a skillset which could support a higher batting average and high on base percentage could potentially take him from a starting caliber player to an all-star.
The question will be if he can combine these tools together effectively. The application of this is starting to show. If he can make it stick over a longer sample, Kilby will easily rise to a top 25 prospect in the sport. If not, the back half of the top 100 may remain Kilby’s home. Either way, Kilby is an exciting hitter who possesses some offensive traits the Yankees currently lack. His progression through the minors next year will be exciting to watch in what will hopefully be his first full season.
Every Prospect. Every Level. Every Day.
Comments