Contenders to be the Yankees' New Top Prospect
The Yankees will soon be in need of a new top prospect in the system. With George Lombard Jr.’s early August promotion to the MLB, he is set to lose his prospect status later this month. With his graduation, there will be a vacancy at the top of the Yankees’ organization. While the list isn’t vast, there are a few contenders with varying cases to become the new top prospect in the system. I wanted to look at 6 names and make the case for, and against, as the system’s new top dog.
Honorable Mention
Sean Duncan
Case For: Upside
Sean Duncan was selected in the 2nd round of the 2026 MLB Draft, but his signing bonus was the same amount as 1st round pick Hunter Dietz. In fact, there was real feeling Duncan could have been a 1st round pick in the draft. In any case, the Yankees gave a big over-slot bonus to get the Canadian High Schooler to sign. There are good reasons for this too, as Duncan has all the tools of a top-tier starting pitcher. First, he throws hard. In his senior season, he was sitting at 93-95 with his fastball, topping at 97. Keep in mind he is still 18 with the chance to gain a bit more velocity. Second, he has two very tidy secondaries. With a strong changeup and slider, he has been able to induce whiffs in the zone and chases out of it. Third, he is a very good strike thrower for his age. At 18, to already have such good command of all his offerings gives him the chance to potentially move quick, as a lot of high school pitchers with big stuff tend to really struggle throwing strikes.
There is also the tidbit that Duncan’s team would constantly play against minor league teams of organizations, giving Duncan at-bats vs better players. In fact, he has already struck out Jesus Made, the top prospect in baseball, in his high school career. While there are obvious things to work on, he has the makings of a pitcher with the entire package.
Case Against: Injury
The reason Duncan did fall to the Yankees was because of the Tommy John surgery he underwent in May. Because of this, we likely will not see Duncan pitch until late in the 2027 season. Even though TJ is basically a birthright for any pitcher, it is still not a certainty every guy bounces back the same, let alone gets back to where they were pre-injury right away. While Duncan surely has the potential to be the top prospect one day, it is tough to give a teenager who has yet to pitch for the organization the top spot in the system.
Dark Horses
Elmer Rodriguez
Case For: Pro Readiness
It is no secret that Elmer Rodirguez hasn’t had as strong a 2026 as he did 2025, though to be fair, it is hard to top the season he had last year. Still, while this season has been a relative letdown, Rodriguez has performed well in AAA, with a 2.59 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 24.4 K%, and 54% ground ball rate. He’d been especially sharp since July, with a 2.34 ERA, 3.07 FIP, and improved walk rate. This was largely in part to Rodriguez finding a legitimate secondary weapon in his curveball, which is sporting a 48% whiff rate, to pair with his good sinker.
Rodirguez has also had the chance to suit up 6 times for the Yankees, completing 26.2 innings. While the results were tough, with a 5.40 ERA and 4.86 FIP, his recent start vs the Astros showed some of what made him a top prospect. He struck out 6 over 6 innings, and while he allowed 3 runs, 2 of these were due to some extremely poor defense and an inherited runner being allowed home by the reliever. The growing pains have led to maturing for the 23-year-old righty, and if he is given a chance to start at the major leagues again, there is optimism that he can make it stick.
Case Against: Upside
While Rodriguez does feel like a relatively safe bet to be a starting pitcher in the major leagues, his role seems much more likely to be that of a 4 or 5 starter. While having a deep pitch-mix that includes 7 different offerings is nice, only the sinker and curveball are firmly average to above-average offerings. Everything else exists more in the fringe-average range.
Additionally, his control of his pitch-mix has been troublesome, recording iffy strike and zone rates, with a 11.3% BB rate in AAA and 12.8% in the MLB. Someone who lacks high caliber stuff like him needs strong control, but I am uncertain it will reach the level of someone like Max Fried, who has been able to marry many offerings with average or better stuff with good command. All that said, while Rodriguez could sit nicely at the back of the MLB rotation, I am not sure the top prospect in the system is for someone without a high ceiling.
Hunter Dietz
Case For: Hard throwing lefty
As mentioned earlier, Hunter Dietz was the Yankees’ 1st round pick in the 2026 draft. After a bit of a small slip down the board, Dietz was great value at 35. As a big 6’6” lefty, Dietz has a great frame on the mound. He gets good extension and delivers nasty stuff. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90’s with good life. His wipeout slider gets lefties swinging way outside of the zone, and his bowling ball curveball buckles hitter’s knees. He has been adding in a cutter to mimic his slider with a bit less horizontal run and a bit more velocity.
This package made Dietz one of the best college pitchers, finishing with a 36.2 K% and a 2.05 SIERA. On top of that, Dietz now lands at one of, if not the premier pitching organizations in baseball. It could be a match made in heaven for a pitcher who already has some potential top-tier stuff.
Case Against: Inexperience
There are two ways this applies to Dietz. The more obvious one is that he has never thrown a pitch for the Yankees. While there is no doubt he has some of the best arm talent in the organization and dominated the best conference in the NCAA, it is hard to have him leapfrog some others who have proven their pedigree at the upper levels of the minors.
The other way this applies to Dietz is just how much he has pitched in general. Dietz only pitched 1.2 innings as a freshman and sophomore due to left elbow ulna stress fracture in the fall of 2023. A setback during the 2024 season cost him another 13 months. While the UCL was intact, Dietz is still a relatively inexperienced pitcher, with his 84 innings this season his only serious usage since high school.
The Frontrunners
Yostin Pena
Case For: Raw Tools
It has been a meteoric rise for Yostin Pena, as he was barely on anyone’s radar just two months ago. Now, the 18-year-old is one of the fastest rising players not just in our system, but in all of baseball. I knew the hype was real when the Yankees had him go directly from DSL to Low-A. Since then, all he has done is impress. In just 24 games, Pena slashed .323/.389/.552, with 6 home runs, 14.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, and a 141 wRC+. The thing that I was impressed with the most was just how different the sound is off his bat. Everything he hit was scorched, with a 90.3 average EV (89th percentile), 108.6 90th EV (98th), and a 114.3 max EV (96th). He knew how to get into his game power too, with a 45.7% true air rate (line drives and fly balls) and an excellent 22.2% pull air rate.
It’s not just in the batters’ box that he has impressed. Pena looked more than comfortable in center field. While a home in the corner may be best long-term, his speed plays very well in the outfield. His arm is the real talking point. While the alleged 106mph throw he had a few weeks ago may not have been truly accurate, it is still 70 grade arm strength. While there are still some growing pains, Pena has shined very brightly this summer.
Case Against: Swing Decisions/Contact
The issues Pena has aren’t new to hyped prospects, Spencer Jones being a good example of a guy who had big power but concerns with their swing decisions and contact. While there are plenty who can figure these skills out enough to continue to hit well in the upper minors and even the MLB, but there are many more who can’t keep it up once they reach AA. This isn’t to say Pena will or won’t improve as he advances, as there are reasons for optimism, especially with his contact. Still, even with running a league average whiff rate of 29.1%, his 40% chase rate is extreme and will hopefully tighten up.
The hype is real surrounding Pena, and he should be a Top 100 prospect to end the season across the major publications. Still, making him the top prospect in the system from such a small sample would be bold. Perhaps by the summer of 2027 he could have an unquestionable grasp on that spot, but there are understandable reasons for wanting to see more.
Carlos Lagrange
Case For: Stuff
In my prospect rankings, I have Lagrange’s high-end Future Value grade as a 75, which is denoted by Fangraphs as a #1 pitcher, capable of recording 6+ WAR seasons. Indeed, Lagrange’s stuff is without a doubt the best in the system, and I do strongly believe could make him an ace in perfect circumstances. It all starts with his velocity, as he can pump 100+ mph with ease. While the four-seamer is still good at getting whiff, it doesn’t have the best shape. The introduction this season of a sinker has been very prudent, as he throws it with similar velocity, and while it doesn’t get swing and miss, it generates soft contact. His slider and changeup both are thrown at 90mph and get plenty of swing and miss, with the changeup looking like his outstanding secondary pitch. It is truly a dominant pitch mix that can dominate any hitter when going right.
If you think back to Cam Schlittler’s evolution, while the velocity gains were a big part of his breakout, his four-seamer didn’t have great shape and would surrender damage when hitters would time it up. The introduction of a sinker was a massive boost to his profile, giving him a dominant soft-contact offering, along with the fastball and cutter. While the evolution of his curveball has turned him into an ace, Lagrange is already ahead of the game there with two plus secondary offerings. While his season in AAA was certainly filled with some growing pains, the stuff has never been the question with Lagrange.
Case Against: Relief Risk
We already saw it happening before his shoulder injury. In June, the Yankees made the decision to cool Lagrange down as a starter and move him into the bullpen. While this was certainly a move made more to help the 2026 Yankees than make him a reliever full-time, the questions have been there for a while. While his stuff is awesome, the control has been a major hurdle that he has not been able to master yet.
Leading the way is his fastball, which only has a 46% zone rate. This pitch makes way for the rest of the repertoire. Because his fastball isn’t being throw consistently for strikes and is falling behind in counts, Lagrange has been having to compensate by a) trying to get hitters to chase on his breaking stuff out of the zone or b) throwing more fastballs to get back into the count. Neither has worked, as the slider and changeup both have 28.3% chase rates, below average. His four-seamer has a .403 xwOBACON against, allowing a lot of hard contact. Ending up as a relief pitcher is not a bad outcome whatsoever, as he could wind up being one of the very best relievers in the game. Still, I am unsure if a pitcher with this much relief risk belongs at number one. His case really comes down to how much you believe in his control improving.
Dax Kilby
Case For: Complete skillset
Ever since the 2025 1st round pick debuted for the Yankees, all he has done is hit. His 159 wRC+ in 18 games at Tampa in 2025 put him on the radar. His follow-up of a 143 wRC+ in 32 games at the level has confirmed what we all thought about him. Of course, this season cannot be talked about without mentioning the time he missed due to a hamstring injury, not fully getting into games until July. That still hasn’t stopped him from impressing.
The 19-year-old has continued to be very stingy at the plate. While he won’t swing much, he has swung more this season, increasing his zone swing by nearly 4% and allowing himself to chase slightly more by 3.5%. It was another season in which he walked more than he struck out. The new trick up his sleeve this year was improved game power. There was a clear emphasis by Kilby to impact the ball and hit it more in the air. He cut his Ground ball rate by nearly 14% to add 10% more fly balls. Kilby also began to eat into his excellent contact skills to get more game power. While I believe he should find a bit more middle ground after raising his whiff rate from 15% to 25%, he did find what he was looking for, raising his ISO and pullair% year-over-year from .088 to .174 and 8.8% to 14.3%, respectively. It is a good start to Kilby, finally blending contact, power, and swing decisions together.
Case Against: Lack of Power
As mentioned above, Kilby has made clear strides to improve his game power. He has gotten the ball off the ground, pulled it in the air, and has given back some of his contact to improve his game power. I do wonder about his full potential thump still. His 108.9 max EV, identical to his 2025 max, is by no means bad, sitting in the 72nd percentile, but his average and 90th% EV’s were a bit down over a larger sample than in 2025. The other issue is his launch angles. With a 28.6% launch angle sweet spot (between 8 and 32 degrees), Kilby is not hitting the ball with consistently great angles. While the flyball rate improvement is nice, it should be mentioned that his line drive rate did drop by 5% and he added 7% pop ups.
The other area of the power gains that are a bit concerning is how much contact he gave up. As mentioned, his whiff rate went from 15% to 25%, as well as his zone contact rate going from 88.5% to 83.8%. I am not sure that the sacrificed contact was worth the power output he had just yet. There will still be more ironing out for the young infielder, not even 20 years old. Still, when it comes to the frontrunners for the top prospect, Kilby is clearly lowest ceiling/highest floor. While being a guy with high average/high on base is a useful skillset, the dissenters could argue the lack of power should keep him out of the top spot in the system.
Every Prospect. Every Level. Every Day.
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