The Prospect Notebook: 5/12-5/17

Aaron Lichstrahl
May 19
4 min read

Updated: May 20

Jackson Lovich

28 PA, 9 H, 0 2B, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 9 K, 3 SB, .360/.840/1.269

Jackson Lovich gave us a 6 game sample we could never forget last year. However, we have gotten to see much more of Lovich this season after a slightly delayed start to his 2026 season. While this larger sample has exposed more flaws, there is still a lot to like here.

The most noticeable thing about Lovich is his top tier power. Similar to Dillon Lewis last year, even through some of his struggles this season, everything he hits is hit extremely hard. While Lovich had hit a lot of doubles, this week we saw his power reach max potential with 4 home runs, raising his ISO to .277 on the season. While Lovich has easy opposite field power so he doesn’t need to run the highest pullair rates, he’d struggled to hit fly balls on the season, more often hitting it on the ground or a line drive. The more he hits the ball in the air, the more success we will see from Lovich.

The issue that has been exposed with Lovich is his zone contact. While Lovich will chase a lot, I believe he makes up for it because he has disproportionately swung more in the zone. However, with a 64% Zone contact rate on the season, there has been a lot of swing and miss, leading to a very high 30% K rate. This week was a relatively good week in terms of his zone contact, but more progress will have to be made.

Lovich has potential to be the top bat in the system with his power, but right now his flaws make him look like a junior version of Spencer Jones. I expect Lovich will get a promotion to Hudson Valley later this season, so we will have to monitor closely his ability to make contact.

Luis Serna

6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.91 ERA, 1.43 FIP

Luis Serna was a guy I was high on dating back to his 2024 season in Tampa. After injuries shortened that season and 2025, Serna received a surprising promotion to Hudson Valley. After getting off to a stellar start with a 10K outing, I wanted to wait till we saw more of Serna to really cover him.

I got to watch Serna take on a very tough lineup featuring 3 former first round picks and a couple of other well performing bats. I’m happy to say Serna looked very strong, striking out 8 while only allowing 2 runs in 6 innings. Among these strikeout victims were 2024 first rounder Vance Honeycutt and 2025 1st rounders Ike Irish and Wehiwa Aloy.

Serna’s bread and butter is his changeup. It is a legitimate 70 grade weapon that is able to induce plenty of chase when thrown out of the zone, but more importantly, miss bats when thrown in the zone. He got a lot of zone swing and misses against the Keys. Aiding his changeup are his fastballs, a 92-94MPH four-seamer and sinker. While not the strongest pitches, Serna has been throwing them for strikes more consistently over the past several starts. It is a key element to his game, as an effective fastball elevates his changeup. While it can be susceptible to damage, as it was this night, it is still an average offering with potential to get better.

The key for Serna right now will be to improve his slider and/or curveball. A plus slider would be especially useful to have something going away to righties. Right now, Serna is a clear up arrow candidate the way he is able to miss bats in the zone. While they have already been aggressive with a High-A promotion, we could see an even more aggressive AA promotion late in the summer.

Jace Avina

28 PA, 10 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 9 K, 0 SB, .417/.500/.792

Avina is one of several hitters in the Somerset lineup that has been on an impressive pre-summer heater. In the first 35 games of the season, he has hit 11 home runs, tying his mark from 98 games last season. After another strong week, it was time to discuss Avina.

Avina may not have the most raw power like the aforementioned Jackson Lovich, but he maximizes his game power by his very strong pullair rates, doing so at an outstanding 20% clip. On top of this, Avina has very quality swing decisions. While not the most aggressive swinger, Avina has good pitch location recognition, running very good zone swing and chase rates. This maximizes his ability to swing at pitches he can do damage on. It was especially noticeable in this weeks games, as you could hardly find a pitch he wasn’t swinging at in the zone, yet I'm hard pressed to remember a notable bad chase.

Avina’s weakness is his hit tool, as he has run a very low zone contact rate and high whiff rate this season. The lack of stable contact has led to Avina striking out a fair bit. While the rate had been a little better in recent weeks, 7 strikeouts in the Saturday and Sunday games almost single handedly erased to work he’s done to improve the K%.

Avina is nifty player. While not a great defender, he can clearly manage the corner outfield spots. Even further, he has figured out how to maximize his skillset, selling out for further game power at the cost of a bit of contact. His prospect status is clearly improving, but if he can regain some of the contact without sacrificing the new game power, it would further aid his surge.

Every Prospect. Every Level. Every Day.