Prospects Who Need to Find More Consistency

A very common adage when it comes to sports, and especially minor league baseball, is that growth isn’t linear. In a sport where you typically fail more than you succeed, even the very best prospects will struggle at some points. That being said, in order to make the MLB, more than flashes need to be shown. When looking around the league, most guys who are able to not just make the majors but stay there had shown some level of consistency in the minor leagues. With that said, I want to look at some players in the Yankees system who had hot stretches that I want to see sustained over a longer period in 2026.

Kyle Carr — LHP

2025 Stats: 25 GS, 133 IP, 2.64 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 21.7 K%, 10.2 BB%

Best Stretch: 9 GS, 56.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 24.9 K%, 6.9 BB%

Just looking between 2024 and 2025, Kyle Carr clearly had a better season, bringing his ERA and FIP down from 4.76 and 4.03, respectively. However, as a former 3rd overall pick, the expectation is higher for Carr. While the 2.64 ERA looks nice, the FIP being a whole point higher suggests there was a good amount of luck involved with Carr’s starts. The low K-BB% backs up the higher FIP as well. Without overpowering stuff, Carr needs to rely on an ability to throw strikes and generate soft contact. While the soft contact has been there with a 50% GB rate and only 13 home runs in his career 237 innings, the control has very much not. With a 12.2% and 10.2 BB% in ’24 and ’25, Carr has not been throwing enough strikes.

Why I am hanging on to my faith in Carr is because of a 9 start stretch from 7/2–8/28. In this run, Carr was able to maintain his strong run prevention per ERA, but with underlying data that suggests more sustainable results. The biggest positive regression was the walk rate, cutting it more than 5% from his first 13 starts. Adding to that, Carr bumped his K rate by 6%, generating a lot more swing and miss. Staying true to his ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the yard (only 1 home run allowed), Carr showed a much more sustainable profile in this run. During this stretch, Carr had implemented a new cutter as well as lowering his release height in order to create a more distinct and uncomfortable angle for hitters. Carr finally has some positive momentum after a fairly uninspiring first 24 months in the organization, but in order to stay in the top 20 of Yankees prospects, I need to see more of what we saw during his summer in Hudson Valley.

Spencer Jones — OF

2025 Stats: 506 PA, .274/.362/.571, 153 wRC+, 35 HR, 29 SB, 35.4 K%, 11.5 BB%

Best Stretch: 159 PA, .397/.465/.875, 251 wRC+,19 HR, 9 SB, 25.2 K%, 11.9 BB%

2025 was always going to be a crucial year. Following a 2024 campaign which saw him strike out nearly 37% of the time and have an ISO under .200, Jones had something to prove if he wanted to keep his prospect status alive. While it wasn’t the perfect year (you can see the high K rate), Jones did show a strong pulse, racking up a 2nd best 35 home runs in the minor leagues (1 behind 1st but with 146 less plate appearances). While there are different contributing factors that led to his success, one of the bigger changes was Jones roughly 10% decrease YoY to his ground ball rate. With his elite ability to impact the ball, Jones was able to hit many more home runs over the course of the season.

However, the stretch I want to focus on spans from June 10th till July 24th, where Jones was absolutely nuclear. Jones 251 wRC+ during this period is 47 points higher than Aaron Judge’s during his MVP season. I want to focus on his K%, and more specifically, his contact rates. The biggest issue with Jones had always been his ability to make contact. With well below average contact rates, many evaluators felt uneasy, if not dismissive, of his ability to make an impact at the MLB level. While his rates were still not necessarily ‘good’ during this stretch, they were clearly improved. As seen, a 25.2 K% is much closer to a league average rate. While we don’t have access to contact rates from his time in AA, we do have this data upon his promotion to AAA on June 27th.

Across his first month at the highest level of the minors, Jones had a 72% zone contact rate. Whiles till below average, it seemed to be well up from the rates he’d historically run. Although it all fell apart from August onward, in part because of a nagging back spasm injury, this glimpse of improved contact ability was enough to sell some (including me) that there is a realistic scenario of Jones making enough contact at the MLB for his prestigious power to make an impact. Moving into 2026, I would really love to see Jones hover around that 70% rate, while also dropping that chase rate closer to 30%. Spencer Jones will always be synonymous with strikeouts, but if he can make these changes, so will Home Runs.

Bryce Warrecker — RHP

2025 Stats: 57 IP, 2.05 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 28.2 K%, 6.0 BB%

Best Stretch: 29.2 IP, 0.91 ERA, 1.67 FIP, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%

This is more a tale of two halves than one stretch in the middle of the season. Warrecker made the move from the 2024 Tampa rotation to a full time reliever at Hudson Valley in 2025. The switch reaped immediate rewards, as Warrecker was dominant for the Renegades over the first 3 months of the season. Most notable was his outstanding 27.8 K-BB%. All the results were backed by strong underlying metrics as well. However, from the end of June onward, the results weren’t as peachy. While a 3.29 ERA and 2.81 FIP over 27 innings arent bad results in the slightest, it was concerning seeing Warrecker’s K% drop 10% down to 23.1%. The most encouraging takeaway in this run was that his walk rate remained nearly the same, showcasing Warrecker’s ability to throw consistent strikes.

The Yankees have struggled to produce a true relief pitcher threat in recent years. While there have been intriguing candidates like Jack Neely or Eric Reyzelman, either trades or injuries/regression have seen any names fail to make an impact on the Major League roster. While Warrecker is still two steps from knocking on that door, if he can return to being that first half pitcher, he could be the one to break that mold. Yankees have struggled with command from their relief arms, so he would be a very welcome addition. Without elite velocity, he needs to be able to find a sustainable way to strikeout more hitters. I remain hopeful about Warrecker, but need to see that K rate stay propped up through an entire season.

George Lombard Jr. — SS

2025 Stats: 580 PA, .235/.367/.381, 127 wRC+, 9 HR, 35 SB, 25.2 K%, 15.0 BB%

Best Stretch: 219 PA, .228/.347/.418, 129 wRC+, 6 HR, 10 SB, 29.7 K%, 13.7 BB%

The top prospect in the Yankees organization, Lombard Jr. rode the pre-season momentum all the way to a top 30 prospect ranking in minor league baseball. While the hype seemed warranted after a 194 wRC+ in his first 111 plate appearances at Hudson Valley, upon his very aggressive promotion to AA Somerset, the 20 year old Lombard showed signs of struggle. While he did end with an above average 111 wRC+ at the level, Lombard’s lack of contact and game power for stretches was concerning to some evaluators who were hoping to see more growth in these areas. While Lombard is still a top prospect in the game, some of his inconsistencies have taken him to the back of the top 50, if not just outside. Still, there is reason to believe these tools can be showcased in 2026.

During his brief run in the minor leagues, Lombard has stuck out with his premium glove and really strong swing decisions, with his hit and power tools lacking behind. While the season on the whole didn’t show those areas have improved on the whole, Lombard after the all-star break did provide real encouragement. Maintaining his strong walk rate, Lombard showed a lot more game power with a .190 ISO, including 6 home runs. Impressively, during the first half of this run, Lombard was showing improved zone contact rates. While these did fall over the last month of the season, as well as having an uncharacteristic high chase rate, there was a clear effort in opening up his offensive game.

Going into next year, Lombard will have to show he can maintain some of this game power while making more contact and lowering his K rate. As a very conservative swinger, I would really like to see him swing the bat more and not taking so many strikes and putting him in difficult counts. At the very least, there is still some hope that the young shortstop can have more offensive upside and not just be a premium glove who can draw walks.