Why George Lombard Jr.’s AAA Stat Line is Deceiving

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It’s been about a month since the Yankees promoted their top prospect George Lombard Jr., to AAA. After he put up a .971 OPS in AA. He has seemingly slowed down in AAA, sporting a .196/.360/.299 slash line for a .659 OPS with 2 HR. While the surface numbers don’t look great, there are plenty of underlying metrics to show that the 2023 first rounder has been far from overmatched at the plate.

Firstly, one major catalyst for Lombard’s offensive surge during his time in AA this season was his ability to tap into more game power. As someone who had always had great raw power, the righty shortstop previously never was able to tap into it consistently during the prior two seasons. This season however, Lombard was able to find his game power in AA, and is looking poised to find it in AAA sooner rather than later.

Lombard currently has an average EV of 91.7 MPH (92nd percentile) and a hard hit percentage of 48.7% (82nd percentile), both elite marks at AAA. On top of this Lombard also has a 90th percentile EV of 104.4 MPH, an above average mark for AAA and around league average for the MLB. Combined with his ability to pull the ball in the air, Lombard should continue to generate more game power and increase his barrel rates, which despite being below average have improved in recent weeks.This has allowed Lombard to put up an xwOBA of .336 despite only a .302 wOBA, indicating that he has been severely unlucky as a hitter and that he should be performing way better overall than his slash line suggests it should.

Next, elite plate discipline with incredible patience has always been a calling card with Lombard’s bat throughout the minors and at AAA that’s been no different. Lombard’s chase rate currently registers at 21.9% chase rate (82nd percentile), highlighting that he doesn’t expand outside of the strike zone often.This great mark has always allowed Lombard to accumulate a high walk rate and that’s continued in AAA, with an absurd 19.1 BB% (96th percentile). Lombard has also made more of an effort to swing at pitches in the zone, something he struggled with in the past. And while a 62.2% Z-swing rate isn’t too high, he has been aggressive early in counts when he is receiving hittable pitchers. By taking advantage in the zone early in counts while not chasing, Lombard has been able to maintain his strong walk rate while showing emerging game power.

Finally, we’ve seen improvements from Lombard in his contact rates during his time in AAA. While Lombard has always been regarded as a power over hit bat, after his promotion he has seen improvements in his contact rates, particularly in zone. 

Lombard has seen an increase in Z-contact from 78.7% to an 81.8% between levels, which despite being below average for AAA still is a noticeable jump and more palatable in terms of contact numbers, while maintaining a good strikeout percentage of 21.1% (62nd percentile). If Lombard continues to steadily grow in his contact numbers within AAA, it could help him as an overall hitter. 

Despite Lombard’s numbers not being the greatest, there have been plenty of positives to take away from his time in AAA. Only turning 21 today, Lombard has moved through the minors at a pace that allows some grace for the growing pains he has endured. At each level he has been at, Lombard has been able to learn from his mistakes and figure out how to succeed. If he continues to improve and maintain the process he has shown at the plate, it will only be a matter of time when his stats begin to reflect as such, and consequently make a stronger push for him to make his MLB debut.

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