YankeesFarm Stock Report: May Edition

Dave Janosz/Hudson Valley Renegades

As the baseball season hits Memorial Day, we have now reached a point in the season where player performances have settled and sample sizes have expanded. Still, baseball is a game of ups and downs, and we have seen plenty of prospects get hot in May, as well as slow down from strong April. With that said, here is the May stock report for the Yankees farm system.

Stock Up

Jackson Lovich

It was a slow start to the season for Lovich. After homering in his first game of the season, he went on a prolonged run of struggling to make contact, seeing his Strikeout rate rise and xwOBA fall. While there was still a lot to like, we were seeing more flaws in his game than we witnessed in his brief stint in Tampa last year. Since the calendar turned to May, we have seen a much-improved Lovich.

The biggest change for Lovich was the game power. After only hitting 3 home runs in his first 24 games, he has now hit 8 in his last 10 games, including a big 3 home run day on May 20^th. While before this he was hitting plenty of doubles, the change to more home runs showed an improved launch angle, getting the ball off the ground and into the air more. Lovich continues to barrel up the ball consistently, with elite 90^th% and max exit velocities of 108.0 and 113.6 mph, respectively. While Lovich does chase a bit, he does a very good job swinging in the zone at a rate to make up for some of the swings out of the zone, with a very good 45% z-o swing rate.

The issue for Lovich will remain his contact ability. With a 67% zone-contact rate for the season, he will see struggles against better pitching. The 75% zone-contact rate since May 1^st, while certainly better, still is not as strong as you’d like. Defensively, Lovich certainly possesses the athleticism to make a corner outfield or infield position his home. We knew about the raw power from last year, but seeing the maturation of his game power and swing decisions has me very upbeat on Lovich’s place in the farm rankings.

Jace Avina

Another prospect who has been on a power tear is Jace Avina. While he had always shown some raw power in previous seasons with the Yankees, he had only hit 10 and 11 home runs in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This year in 41 games, he is already at 12. We are witnessing a hitter who has learned how to fully maximize his raw power, pulling the ball in the air 23.1% of the time, which is in the 95^th percentile for AA.

There has been a bit of a tradeoff for Avina, as he is whiffing more than at previous points of his career. Over the last week, we have seen his whiff rate trending positively. The often non-discussed strength of Avina’s game is his swing decisions. Right now, he is sporting an elite 51% z-o swing rate. By swinging at a high amount of pitches in the zone while managing to not swing at pitches outside, he is maximizing his chances to do damage.

It is hard to know what Avina’s ceiling is. For someone who is whiffing and striking out at less than stellar rates, there will be concerns over his hit tool as he moves to AAA and beyond. There is a clear value on power hitters amongst organizations around the league. Because of his performance in May, Avina seems like a name that will attract the attention at the deadline.

Stock Down

Andrew Landry

One of the more puzzling seasons so far has been Andrew Landry. After a solid end to the season as a starter, as well as some public praise by Sam Briend, expectations were raised for Andrew Landry In the off-season. The first eyebrow was raised when Landry was unexpectedly deployed from the bullpen to begin the season. Now after 16.1 innings, there is real concern about Landry and his production. Although his 3.31 ERA and 3.91 FIP aren’t bad, his 21.1 K% and 13.5 BB% are both concerning figures.

Strike throwing has remained a consistent issue for the 24-year-old right hander, and it hasn’t improved in a more limited role. More concerning is that Landry is getting hit around when he’s in the zone. As a reliever, he is not missing any more bats than he was as a starter. Praised by Briend as a guy who could hit 98 on the gun, you would hope moving to the bullpen would allow him to use that heat more often, but the results have not been promising.

Relievers in general carry less prospect value than starters. While guys like Luis Serna, Franyer Herrera, Allen Facundo, and Sean Paul Linan continue in the ebbs and flows of being starters, they have seemingly lapped Landry in the pecking order. When looking at the bullpen, arms like Ben Grable, Chris Veach have been much sharper, receiving moves to AA ahead of Landry. With all that combined, it does appear that the arm who was featured in my pre-season top 20 has slipped out of that position.

Cade Smith

Despite being below average velocity on the fastball and less than stellar control, Cade Smith had been able to find success at Tampa and Hudson Valley, still garnering plenty of swing and miss thanks to his plus slider. Now that he has reached the upper levels of the minors, his deficiencies have not been able to be hidden nearly as well. After 30.2 innings, Smith has a 5.87 ERA and an even worse 6.67 FIP on the season.

As mentioned, Smith had always been able to combat his shaky command with good swing and miss rates. What we see in AA is Smith is still throwing strikes at a below average rate while now surrendering a lot of contact when he does throw in the zone, with both strike% and zone contact% in the 35^th percentile in AA. Additionally, he has not been able to generate as many chases as you’d like for a guy whose best pitch is a slider, sitting in the 234rd percentile in chase rate. While he had 3 starts with just 1 walk surrendered, there was still damage allowed, giving up 7 hits in two of those contests. The combination of these things is a career low 24.5% K rate for Smith.

While most pitchers don’t project to be starters, there was always a stronger belief that Smith could make for a good reliever. While he still has only pitched two months at AA, it does seem the window on the 24-year-old being a starter is closing. While adjusting to this advanced level can be tough, we just have not seen the underlying upside in his performance that someone like Xavier Rivas or Jack Cebert have shown while they all make the jump to AA.

Hold

Mac Heuer

When I released my revised top 30 rankings on Mother’s day, I had moved Mac Heuer up from 18 all the way to the brink of the top 10, finding himself at 11. This push coincides with Baseball America’s early aggression on the right-hander, noting his good velocity and stuff. Even after 1 start at Tampa, the stuff showed special outlier traits that had me bought in. That being said, we are seeing why Heuer is truly a project.

In just 13.1 innings across 4 starts, Heuer has struggled to throw strikes, walking 11 batters to 14 struck out. From watching him pitch, it does seem that Heuer is consistently missing up in the zone, unable to get his fastball or cutter down. This has led to poor results, a 5.40 ERA and 7.08 FIP. Still, as I alluded to in the opposite with Cade Smith, Mac Heuer has shown the velocity and pure stuff that gets you excited.

Mac Heuer is a true project. He throws mid-to-upper 90’s, has great extension, and shows some traits with his pitches that are extremely uncommon. These are all things that make you willing to grant time for Sam Briend and the player development team to mold him. It may yet be a few more months of some ugly performances, but it is key to remember Heuer is still not even 22 yet. Heuer’s ranking is all about upside, and it is far too soon to give up on that despite a very shaky start.

Kaeden Kent

Kaeden Kent caught the attention of many Yankees fans thanks to his very strong hit tool. It was a 7 game run at the end of April that got me more excited about Kent’s upside, as he hit 3 home runs in this span. However, since then we have seen a more limited version of Kent at the plate.

There are still clear positives: Kent has whiff, zone contact, and K rates above the 90^th percentile at the level. Additionally, Kent has shown above average swing decisions with a zone swing rate over 73% with a chase rate just above 27%, good for a 46% z-o swing rate. Kent is clearly shaping up to be a prospect who can be counted on to make contact and put the ball in play. That being said, in the 22-game sample since his 3^rd home run of the season, Kent has only recorded 3 doubles and 2 triples among his 23 hits over his last 98 plate appearances. His slash line stands at .256/.316/.333, good for a .087 ISO.

I put Kent in the hold section not because I doubt his ability to make consistent contact, but because I worry about his ability to hit for enough power to be an everyday player. I am not expecting Kent to flip a switch and go on a home run barrage like Jace Avina, but I think there are some things Kent can take from Avina’s surge to help his game. Mainly, I would like to see Kent sacrifice a bit of contact and focus on pulling the ball in the air more. His whiff/z-contact is so strong that there is enough to trade off for some pop to not ruin his above average hit tool.

Buy Low

Rory Fox

Rory Fox is a good example of why you don’t look at ERA for minor leaguers. Going into his start this week, he had a 6.98 ERA but a much better (albeit still high) 4.64 FIP. Despite this, he still had a 27% K rate and 9% walk rate, as well as some other positive underlying metrics. Fox has struggled with inning-to-inning consistency in the early part of the season, going from perfect innings to several runs allowed. On Thursday, we finally saw Fox put it all together for an outing, going 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, bringing his ERA and FIP down to 5.65 and 4.10, respectively.

As mentioned, Fox has some very encouraging underlying data that makes me bullish we will get more starts like the one from this Thursday. Primarily, Fox has positive data for stats key in getting strikeouts, with well above average called or swinging strike rate (CSW%) and Chase Rate. Additionally, he has a 49% ground ball rate, which is typically a good sign of being able to avoid damaged contact. Lastly, Fox is a very good strike thrower in the early going with a 64.3% strike rate. With sound mechanics and a comfortable but still improving 4 pitch mix, Fox is clearly a guy who is just waiting to break out.

One other reason I believe Fox is destined for better days is because of his absurdly high 21.7% HR/FB ratio. Balls are leaving the yard at an excessive rate vs Fox, and it is one I do not expect to persist. Rory Fox is certainly not a name that has been making waves through the first two months of the minor league season, but I believe it is one we will be hearing a lot more about in the months to come.

J.T. Etheridge

When you hear about UDFA pitchers in the Yankees organization, Tyler Boudreau is the more buzz worthy name. While the ’25 UDFA has shown off in Tampa with his plus fastball, there is a more unknown UDFA pitcher from the ‘24 class that I think deserves some recognition. J.T. Etheridge, like Fox, will not wow you with his 4.66 ERA in 19.1 innings, but his 3.35 FIP is impressive, and is backed by some other encouraging data.

Etheridge has surprised early on with a 31% K rate. This has been achieved largely through a stellar 34.1% CSW rate. With good velocity, extension, and some swing and miss ability, Etheridge has been an intriguing piece in the Tampa rotation. The 6’6” righty features a fastball that sits 94.5 mph, though some of its traits make it more of a fringe average offering. His curveball and slider are the real weapons, both sitting right around 80 mph with heavy horizontal break. He also features a sinker and changeup, but they are distant 4^th and 5^th pitches.

There are clear areas for improvement. For one, Etheridge struggles to get chases right now. He also is a fly ball pitcher, which leaves him susceptible to home runs. Lastly, he does walk a few too many batters, with an 11.5% walk rate in the early going. Despite all of this Etheridge’s repertoire really intrigues, as does most of his early performances. Both Etheridge and Boudreau strike me as guys who would flourish as relievers. So while Boudreau may be stealing more headlines, I would pay closer attention to Etheridge, especially if the Yankees do make him a fully operational reliever.

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