Aaron's Yankees Top 30 Prospects: May Update

It has been an exciting first month of the minor league season. While I don’t like to shake up my prospect rankings too much, pre-season rankings can quickly become out of date. With the late March assignments, injury news, physical changes, amongst many other things, there have been some fairly big changes to my top 30. Since Baseball America just recently released their new top 100, I figured now would be a good time to do so with my Yankees list. To change things up a bit, I included one number or stat that I think is a key point when discussing each player. While there are clearly many factors in a player’s performance, some of these numbers stuck out as talking points. Before we begin, a shoutout to Thomas Nestico (@tjstats) for providing all minor league data used, both in today’s article, and my daily analysis of all players.

Dropped Out: Henry Lalane, Cade Winquest, Brock Selvidge

Just Missed: Yovanny Cruz, Quini Pineda, Wilson Rodriguez

30. Core Jackson (New!)

7.6 – Pull Air Rate

There are several somewhat underwhelming data points from Core Jackson’s first month of the season, both production and underlying, but this one stuck out to me the most. Jackson’s main calling card at the time of the draft were his elite exit velocities. Jackson had the potential to be a power hitting middle infielder from the left side of the plate. While he has been better at the plate recently, the power still hasn’t shown up. Jackson is hitting the ball too often on the ground or the other way. If he can start pulling it in the air more, we may see those offensive numbers go up. Jackson will never hit for contact at the level of Kaeden Kent, so he will need the power numbers to succeed.

29. Francisco Vilorio (30)

0 – Home Runs in 2025

Vilorio has yet to play in FCL, still recovering from an injury, so we will focus on last year. Vilorio has been lauded for his high exit velocities. There is a lot to like about Vilorio and his 6’4” frame. However, the fact he did not hit a single Home Run last season was somewhat disappointing. Vilorio did make big strides in his contact ability, which was necessary, but this year we will need to see him find some balance between the hit tool and power tool.

28. Enmanuel Tejeda (28)

14.9 - Chase Rate

Enmanuel Tejeda has always shown a good eye at the plate during his two abbreviated stints at Low-A in 2024 and 2025. This year, he is taking it to a new level. Now, Tejeda has a 20.7% BB rate, the best of his career. While it is great to see him on base so much, I think his overall passive approach has hurt him some offensively, as he is currently swinging less than last year with mildly worse offensive results. If Tejeda can figure out how to swing more without a relative increase in his chase rate, we could see him really heat up.

27. Mani Cedeno (27)

 17 – Years Old

Last year, Mani Cedeno played the entire DSL season at 16-years-old. While he did show off some power in the last few weeks of the season, the young shortstop seemed to be a bit overmatched for most of the campaign. As one of the youngest players in the 2025 IFA class, this wasn’t too surprising. Now another year older, the expectations for Cedeno will be higher. Given the track record of recent high-priced IFA’s, Cedeno will need to perform well to avoid being lumped in with some of the other underperforming talents.

26. Stiven Marinez (25)

 1.7 – Million Signing

Stiven Marinez currently ranks as the top IFA player who the Yankees gave over $1M in international free agency. While we have talked about how this area has been rather disappointing in years past, Marinez has shown some real reasons to believe he can break past the shortcomings of other high-priced signings. A smooth defender at short with solid contact skills and some pop, Marinez should be watched closely in his age 18 season.

25. Andrew Landry (17)

 0 – Games Started

After a season in which Landry threw 112 innings and started 22 games, as well as receiving some praise from Sam Briend in the media, expectations were raised for Landry in the offseason. Which is what makes it all the more puzzling to see that the 24-year-old has been used in a bullpen role for Hudson Valley this season. It has been well documented the plethora of arms in the system. While some were going to have to make a likely move to the bullpen to make way for starters, there were others who seemed more likely for that transition. We’ll see if this move helps fast track Landry’s progress, though the early returns haven’t been fantastic.

24. Kyle Carr (16)

 64.1 – Strike%

It has been a very strange start to the season for Kyle Carr. After opening with two solid outings, he had back-to-back clunkers of 7 earned runs each. This was followed by 6 spotless innings in his most recent start. Carr does not have elite stuff, but he always has managed to be solid with damage suppression. The biggest plague to his success has been his ability to throw strikes. This season, he is throwing strikes at the highest rate of his career. If he is going to find success, throwing more strikes and getting ground balls will likely be the recipe.

23. Ben Grable (New!)

52.3 – K Rate

I usually don’t like ranking relievers in top 30’s, let alone this high, but Ben Grable has become one of my favorite prospects to watch in 2026. Led by a demon fastball sitting 95-97, and paired with solid but improving splitter and slider, Grable demolished High-A before being promoted to AA. While there are some underlying data points that have taken a bit of a step back in his first 4.2 innings of the promotion, that has not stopped him from striking just about everybody out. Grable is 2^nd amongst all minor league pitchers with his 52.3 K rate. More impressively, he is doing this without walking anybody, with a minuscule 4.5% walk rate. Grable has strapped a rocket to his back and has made himself a potential MLB bullpen candidate for next year, if not this summer.

22. Richard Matic (20)

 1 – Spot in the Order

The FCL season just started, so there is very little to talk about unless we delve into very tiny samples. The most notable thing has been the lineup card, where Matic has featured at the very top of this season. This is relevant because it speaks of the organization’s belief in the young corner infielder. With him getting the most at-bats each game, they clearly view his bat as a key developmental piece.

21. Allen Facundo (13)

32.4 – Swing Rate Against

Allen Facundo got a quick promotion to Hudson Valley after surprisingly being left at Low-A Tampa to begin the season. While he has shown the ability to get strikeouts, it hasn’t been in the way you want. Facundo has had a difficult time finding the zone, leading to a lot of walks. On the same page, hitters are not offering at his pitches. He is the in the 1^st percentile for swings against. His strikeouts have primarily come from called strikes. He has fared better with swings and misses on his slider, but the fastball has lacked effectiveness at the level. Control will always be the biggest concern with Facundo, and he will need to find it to improve the efficacy of all his offerings.

20. Franyer Herrera (New!)

33.5 – Chase Rate

Franyer Herrera is a player I was tantalizingly close to including in my previous Top 30 (he was 31). After the surprise promotion to open the 2026 season in Hudson Valley after only 10 innings the prior season in Low-A, he moved firmly into the top 30. His performance in High-A one month in has seen him balloon to top 20. While you may not be impressed if you were to just look at his ERA or FIP, Herrera has been doing a lot of things well. With a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and a devilish changeup from the left side, Herrera has been a tough at-bat for hitters in the South Atlantic League. Most importantly, he has done a very good job at getting them to chase out of the zone, with an 89^th percentile chase rate. Most impressive is he has been able to do this despite average strike throwing and a high walk rate. Having only just turned 21, Herrera is clearly still developing, but has impressed a lot with the peripherals despite some unpretty face numbers.

19. Jace Avina (19)

 22.5 – Pull Air%

Jace Avina is hitting for the best power in his career. While the 22-year-old had always shown some power potential, it always showed up inconsistently. However, after a putrid start to the season, the outfielder has blown up, with 17 of his 26 hits being for extra bases. His .312 ISO is the highest in his career since he put up a .336 with Milwaulkee’s Arizona complex team. Aiding this power surge has been Avina’s ability to pull the ball in the air. If Avina can sustain this level of power, his prospect stock goes up considerably. Now to just figure out how to get the strikeouts back down.

18. Luis Serna (28)

65.5 – Zone Contact Against

Luis Serna’s surprise promotion to Hudson Valley to open the 2026 season confirmed something that I already knew: this is a top 30 prospect in the Yankees organization. After his start to the season, I am now sure he is a top 20 prospect.  There has been a lot he has done well in his first 27 innings at High-A, but I am choosing to go with his zone contact against as the best number. Serna has been able to strike out an impressive 29.5% of batters faced. While above an average chase rate has helped, it has been his ability to miss bats in the zone that has been the driver. Right now, Serna has a 100^th percentile zone contact rate for High-A. The leading charge has been his beautiful changeup, but his fastball/sinker combo has done well for the level despite lacking some control and velocity. Now finally healthy after two injury shortened seasons, Serna is looking like a real weapon in the system.

17. Rory Fox (22)

 63.9 – Strike%

Rory Fox is another pitcher who has had an uneven start to the season.  His season has been more about his inning-to-inning inconsistency, rather than one good start/one bad start. Fox has flashed some of the stuff that made the Yankees select him in the 6th round  while also showing the issues that plagued him in college. Fox was always more of a project arm, as he was a two-sport athlete and a two-way athlete for a long time, so he doesn’t have the same level of experience on the mound. The stuff and consistency will take a bit of time to develop, which is why I choose to highlight his strike rate. Being able to pound the zone can be a challenge, but Fox has done that despite how raw of a talent he is.

16. Jackson Lovich (23)

 60.2 – Zone Contact

I am a big fan of Jackson Lovich. His raw power is tantalizing, but raw. While the 6-game sample we saw last year was exhilarating, we are now seeing some of his flaws in a larger sample size. Mainly, his ability to make contact has been a real hinderance. His 60% z-con is teetering into Spencer Jones levels of contact, and this is at Low-A. Lovich’s raw tools can easily make him a top 10 prospect in the season, but it’s clear the Yankees have more work to do with the bat path to capitalize on it.

15. Cade Smith (12)

 84.9 – Zone Contact Against

Another pitcher who has had control issues during his time with the organization, Cade Smith has had a bumpy start to his time in AA. While his slider has remained a strong offering, the lack of velocity on his fastball has been a bit of a problem. With a nearly 85% zone contact against, Smith has not been able to get the whiffs he needs. While he has been able to get strikeouts at a solid 24% rate, the damage given up on contact is preventing him from truly flourishing at the level.

14. Pico Kohn (11)

60 – Day IL

Pico Kohn had a very exciting first start at Hudson Valley. Then, we never saw him again. At first, Kohn was placed on the 7-day IL. Then, he was placed on the 60-day IL. The injury is believed to be a lower body injury, so at least there are no long-term arm concerns. That said, it is disappointing to see the top pitcher from the most recent draft class go down so soon, and after such a great start.

13. Xavier Rivas (10)

36 – Whiff Rate

Rivas is another guy who has encountered some difficulties with the big promotion to AA. Mainly, his control has been his bugaboo. However, Rivas has had no trouble missing bats. With a 36% whiff rate, he is in the 89^th percentile in AA. Additionally, his 31.7% K rate is in the 84th percentile. He is already proving that AA hitters can’t touch his stuff, but the refinement of his arsenal is needed. If Rivas can improve his efficiency and throw more in the zone, we should see the guy who tore through Hudson Valley again.

12. Kaeden Kent (24)

 19.7 – Whiff Rate

Kaeden Kent is going to be a name old school and new age Yankees fans can agree on. Kent is one of the best at-bats I’ve seen from a Yankees prospect. Kent’s ability to make contact has been highly impressive. Whether he’s swinging in the zone or chasing, he will foul off tough pitches and lengthen at-bats till he can get a ball he can hit or walk. His whiff rate is in the 91^st percentile in High-A. There are still areas to round out in his game, he does chase a bit and needs to pull the ball in the air more, but Kent’s ability to make contact may be the best in the system behind Dax Kilby.

11. Mac Heuer (18)

 -1.2 – Horizontal Break on Four-Seam Fastball

We haven’t seen much of Mac Heuer yet, as he has only pitched 6 innings since returning from an injury that delayed his start to the season. However, he has flashed some very impressive stuff that saw him as a pre-season riser by publications such as Baseball America. What stands out to me is his fastball. A typical four-seam fastball has positive horizontal break, running to the arm side for a right-handed pitcher. His fastball runs on the GLOVE side, giving it an almost cutter element to it. Having standout characteristics usually bodes well for pitching prospects, and Heuer has that with his fastball.

10. Jack Cebert (26)

37.6 – Chase Rate

Jack Cebert has been perhaps one of the biggest arrow up candidates in the Yankees system. The senior sign out of Texas Tech has brought his polished mechanics and solid pitch mix from Hudson Valley to Somerset. While he is a good strike thrower, he also knows how to get batters to swing out of the zone. He does this especially well with his sinker and sweeper, the two pitches with the most horizontal movement. He can get hitters to chase at such a high rate because he overlays his pitches so well. A pitcher may be seeing the four-seam halfway to the plate, only for the pitch to take a sharp break in either direction after they have already begun to swing. While he has been getting hit harder on contact in AA, the underlying data, like chase rate, still paint an encouraging picture of the 24-year-old.

9 & 8. Thatcher Hurd & Chase Hampton (9 & 8)

 1 – Rehab Start

I’m lumping these two together, as they are both in the same boat. Having underwent Tommy John in spring of 2025, both right-handers have made their long-awaited return to the mound. Hurd made a start at FCL this week, while Hampton took the mound for Low-A Tampa, showing good stuff, despite a bit of lower velocity. It’ll likely take another month or so to get back to full strength, but it is exciting regardless that they are both back.

7. Bryce Cunningham (7)

 46.9 – Whiff Rate

One start ahead of the aforementioned Hurd and Hampton, Cunninham has made 2 appearances for Hudson Valley after having the start of his 2026 delayed. While the sample is still incredibly small, I was shocked to see the 98^th percentile whiff rate Cunninham is running. The up and down performance following Cunningham’s 2025 shoulder injury is well known, but it is good to see a positive start to his 2026 campaign.

6. Spencer Jones (6)

76.8 – Zone Contact (Since 4/7)

Spencer Jones has finally received his first promotion to the MLB, well deserved after a good start to AAA. While he remains the same enigmatic player, he always has been, there was one pleasant development from his last month in AAA. After a very rough first week, Spencer Jones has seen his zone contact rise to a very respectable level for someone of his power caliber. Additionally, his K rate has come down to 25.7% during this span. It really is hard to say whether Jones will work out or not, but at the very least, he has shown clear signs of improvement in a well-documented problem area.

5. Ben Hess (5)

16.7 – Chase Rate

Ben Hess is another guy with a very small sample, going on the injured list after 7.2 innings pitched with apparent fatigue. While the sample is small, it also is quite interesting to look at. Hess has been impossible for hitters to touch when he is throwing in the zone but has had trouble finding the zone. This has led hitters to not swing much at his offerings, hence his very low chase rate. It will be key upon his return from injury for Hess to throw strikes. He excelled in AA last year by throwing them at a 64% rate. The 55.6% rate from his first 7.2 innings won’t cut it.

4. Elmer Rodriguez (2)

58 – Ground Ball Rate

We have already gotten to see Elmer Rodriguez make his first two career MLB starts. While there were struggles, it was clearly an amazing learning experience that I am confident he will use to make him a better pitcher. In the meantime, he has had some interesting stats during his time in AAA. Rodriguez has always given me Max Fried vibes: someone who doesn’t have elite stuff but can throw the kitchen sink at you to generate weak contact. That is why I love that he has a 58% ground ball rate. Elmer has always been able to suppress hard contact in the air, only giving up 4 home runs since joining the Yankees. His ground ball rate was ~45% in his two MLB starts. When he does eventually return to the MLB, I would love to see him get that rate back above 50%.

3. Dax Kilby (3)

1 – Month Missed

Dax Kilby has missed the first month of the minor league season due to a lingering hamstring issue. The Yankees have taken a cautious approach, letting him fully heal before putting him in game action. While it is the responsible thing to do, it has been disappointing not being able to watch Kilby after his electric start in 2025.

2. Carlos Lagrange (4)

59.1 - Strike%

You may be noticing a trend here. While the Yankees have a lot of interesting pitchers, most of the higher ranked guys have some clear control issues that need to be smoothed over. No one better exemplifies that than Carlos Lagrange. While he has perhaps the best stuff of any pitching prospect in minor league baseball, his control is clearly lagging to be an MLB starter at the moment. Lagrange is struggling to find the zone, especially with his fastball. The lack of control is allowing hitters to sit back and take pitches. Additionally, when they can get him in bad counts, they can time up the fastball because he must throw it in the zone. This has led to Lagrange giving up a lot of hard hits, including multiple home runs. If the Yankees wanted to use Lagrange as a reliever today, he could quickly become one of the very best in the league. But they are rightfully trying to keep his value as a starter. We will see where he is at in another few months, but right now, Lagrange is clearly struggling to get the ball in the zone.

 

1. George Lombard Jr (1)

 17.5 – Pull Air Rate

George Lombard Jr. had such a strong start to his 2026 season that he received a promotion to AAA before his 21^st birthday. The reason he was able to get this promotion so quickly is because he fixed one of the missing pieces of his game for much of his minor league career: his game power. Lombard Jr. has always put up well above average exit velocities, but now he has fixed his swing path. With a pull air rate of 17.5%, Lombard saw his ISO jump to .260 in AA. Of course, Lombard has shown the ability to hit extra bases the other way, but his best power comes from pulling the baseball. While he has not recorded an extra base hit in AAA yet, if he keeps pulling the ball consistently, it will come.