Prospect Notebook: June 15th

George Lombard Jr.

George Lombard has undergone a lot of growth in his 41 games at AAA. The now 21 year old has been challenged, but is looking much improved over the last two weeks. His growth can be seen through 3 specific windows: 4/30-5/16, 5/17-5/28, and 5/29-6/14. I had a tweet last week highlighting a few stats from these timeframes, but wanted to use this time to dive deeper each of these periods to examine where he has struggled and how he has improved. 

4/30-5/16

When Lombard first got to AAA, he looked like he had his expected process. Lombard exhibited extreme patience bordering on passivity, barely swinging. While this helped with an exception BB% due to never chasing, he was also not exhibiting the same aggressiveness on pitches in the zone early in counts that led to his AA breakout. That being said, Lombard was clearly a victim of awful luck. 

As seen by the nearly .100 difference between the wOBA and xwOBA, Lombard was creating consistently solid contact, but was not finding grass. Some of this is related to the batted ball, he was a bit more on the ground and not pulling the ball in the air consistently. Still, with good 90th exit velocities, Lombard was showing an overall good process that was far more deserving than the .127 average and .478 OPS he put up.  

5/17-5/28

Over the next 10 games, Lombard finally started seeing better offensive results, with a .286 average and .806 OPS. He even hit his first home run during this time on May 27th. That being said, when you look at the underlying, Lombard’s process was very unlike his usual, in a bad way. 

The good here is that Lombard continued to hit the ball hard and was beginning to pull the ball in the air more, likely the key behind his improved slug. Still, as you can see by a lot of blue, the process took a step back. George was swinging 10% more during this run, but it was at the wrong pitches. While his zone swing improved some, his chase took a huge step back. Since George lacks a great hit tool, this led to a lot more whiff, seeing his K% and BB% plummet. This was never what made George a top prospect, and a change was needed. Luckily, what was to come next would capture the process of the first run with the results of the second.

5/29-6/14

As can be seen, Lombard now has the production (.276 average, .963 OPS), with matching strong underlying data (.407 xwOBA, .447 xwOBACON). Lombard has returned to his normal patient bordering passive approach, walking plenty. While the zone contact remains iffy, his aggressiveness early in counts is back, leading to fantastic power output. 

Most impressive to me is the 100th percentile pull air rate. While Lombard will still happily take a pitch on the lower outside portion of the plate to the right field gap, he has been bombarding the left side foul line, and has even shown improving power to the fences deep in left-center field. The hit tool will never be more than average most likely, but the plus swing decisions and above average bordering on plus game power makes Lombard a real threat at the plate. Lombard is breaking out in front of our eyes. What was once a longshot to debut in ‘26 is starting to look more like when, not if. 

Kyle Carr

I’ve always been a bit more bearish on Kyle Carr. Even going back to last year, his hot summer in A+ didn’t completely sell me. His first month of AA ball this season was tough to watch, but major credit to him, Carr has pulled an uno reverse card on his season. 

Carr’s velocity has always been a detractor for the left hander. The lack of an effective four-seam fastball has made him extra dependent on his control being pristine. With a 14.6 BB% in his first 4 starts, we were not seeing that.

In May, the script flipped. Carr has been an elite strike thrower, which has seen a trickle down to all other parts of his performance. The obvious improvement has been in his walk rate, cut down nearly in half to 7.9%. But the good doesn’t end there. After a 1st percentile chase rate in April, Carr has seen his chase right climb over 10%. With his slider and curveball now complimented by a sharp cutter, Carr has developed a very sneaky ability to miss bats at a strong rate, bumping his K% nearly 7% to just shy of 30%.

So we’ve discussed Carr’s success based on what he can control, but what about what he can’t? Well when hitters have made contact, Carr has turned into an excellent damage suppressor. While he has given up 5 home runs since May, there have been a lot of ground balls. While 60% ground ball rate may not rival Tim Hill, it is a hugely impressive ability to keep the ball on the ground. With good infield defense, Carr’s potential rises. 

The lack of velocity will remain an issue. While sitting 92-93 doesn’t prevent him from being a starter, he’ll profile best as a 4 or 5. Still, the addition of the cutter to his two breaking pitches has been a boon for the 24 year old. If this performance keeps up over the next month, a move to AAA isn’t out of the qeustion.